Mid-term Forex Outlook

March 4, 2009 - 1.2497The currency pair is still in the broad consolidation above 1.2328 (Oct. 27, 2008). Technical indicators are neutral and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.3120 and 1.4040.As expected, the negative bias was sustained and the pair bottomed at 1.2457. Although the pair trades close above last year's lows, there are no signs of a major reversal, so we favor the view, that the downtrend should continue beyond 1.2328, towards 1.20+ sentiment level, en route to 1.1640. Crucial on the upside is 1.2996, as only a break above that level will transform current negative bias into a bullish one.During March we expect further depreciation, towards 1.20+ and 1.1640.
Resistance
Support
1.26781.29961.30921.3328
1.24211.23281.20+1.1640
Up
USD/JPY
March 4, 2009 - 98.46
A significant rebound is on the run from the short-term minimums at 87.12, targeting 102.16 and probably 103.55. Technical indicators are rising and convergent on daily basis, and trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 91.82 and 100.13.The break above the 94.64 resistance has activated a reversal "double bottom" formation on daily basis, aiming at 102.16. Although the rebound from 87.12 is corrective in nature on the weekly and monthly time-frames, it is clearly an impulsive one on the daily and lower charts, targeting next resistance levels at 100.13, 102.16 and 13.55.During current month we will expect continuation of the uptrend from 87.12 for 100.13, en route to 102.16 with a risk limit below the important support at 94.64.
Resistance
Support
98.90100.13102.16103.55
97.2096.2094.6487.12
Up
GBP/USD
March 4, 2009 - 1.4015GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase above the recent low at 1.3506. Technical indicators are in a reversal process, and trading takes place below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.4438 and 1.6939.The rise from 1.3506 has met serious resistance at 1.4986 and in the past three weeks the overall bias was neutral with multiple tests of the 1.4020-50 support zone. The mentioned support zone is already broken, which sets the focus on this year's low at 1.3506.During March we favor the idea, that the negative bias will be sustained, aiming at 1.3506. Crucial for the current decline is 1.46+ resistance zone.
Resistance
Support
1.43651.46+1.49861.5727
1.39601.35061.30+